Community Corner

Irene Tracks Farther East in Forecast; Officials Urge Preparation

National Hurricane Center forecasters say storm tracking eastward due to a subtropical ridge

Though Hurricane Irene has evolved to become a physically "impressive" storm, it will most likely track farther to the east and slightly farther away from land, according to predictions from the National Hurricane Center.

If evacuations were deemed necessary, plans would be made as close to Thursday as possible, to avoid making major announcements at the last minute, said Sheriff's Officer Christine Tasullo of the Ocean County Office of Emergency Management.

Hurricane Center Forecaster Todd Kimberlain wrote in an advisory Wednesday morning that while the current forecast track of the storm has not changed much since yesterday, newer forecast models are saying the storm may move a bit farther to the east than first expected.

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"The dynamic track model consensus has, again, shifted a little to the east from the previous [forecast] package," Kimberlain wrote in an 8 a.m. forecast discussion posted on the National Hurricane Center's website.

Meteorologist Steve DiMartino, of NYNJPAweather.com, said he was more hesitant to forecast a move to the east and trust forecast models that can sometimes be sketchy.

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"I'm very, very hesitant to push this hurricane as far east as the National Hurricane Center is right now," DiMartino said. "The models are trying to play catch-up, and when they try to play catch-up, they sometimes overcompensate."

"The trough that's going to kick this hurricane out is over the north Pacific right now," said DiMartino. "That's one of the worst areas in terms of data collection."

DiMartino said he is forecasting the storm to move close in on the New Jersey coast, then kick out towards Long Island. There is a good chance for high winds and flooding in coastal areas, he said.

The latest wind speed probability graphic from the hurricane center indicates that the Jersey Shore has a 30 to 40 percent chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds - winds to 39 m.p.h., in the next 120 hours. The current track of Irene places the storm off the coast of Cape May around 8 a.m. Sunday morning with wind speeds of 100 m.p.h.

As Irene continues to pose a threat to the Shore area, the Ocean County Office of Emergency Management is urging residents to be prepared for the storm. 

Patch will be bringing readers updates on the forecast and local, county and state emergency preparations. Here are the County OEM’s hurricane season safety directives:

  • Be prepared. Have a disaster supply kit ready with a gallon of drinking water a day for each person in the household and a batter-powered radio, which could become the sole source of information in an emergency.
  • Be alert to updates. Keep up with news outlets as they bring the latest information. In the event of a power outage, use a battery-powered radio. WOBM 92.7-FM, WOBM 1160-AM, WJRZ 100.1 FM, WYRS 90.7 FM, WBBO 106.3, and WWYZ 107.1 FM all provide information on Ocean County.
  • Have an evacuation plan. Have prescription drugs and any special dietary foods ready to go. If transportation is a problem, plan with neighbors or the local municipal Office of Emergency Management beforehand. Officials will not order an evacuation unless it is absolutely necessary. Local emergency management offices can provide information such as which evacuation route to take, where public shelters are located, which ones accept animals.
  • Know the current advisory. A hurricane watch is issued when hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within the next thirty-six hours. A hurricane warning is then announced when conditions are expected within the warning area, usually within the next twenty-four hours.
  • Stay safe if you stay home. Emergency management officials caution visitors and residents from venturing outside during a hurricane. Blowing debris can cause serious injury and traveling is highly discouraged. Stay safe until an announcement has been made that it’s safe to leave. Don’t call 911 unless there’s a true emergency.


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